Raul Castro is unlikely to be accommodating, but Russia wants an agreement. The approach is different in America these days, there is a balance of power. Russia no longer fears an outside intervention in the Ukraine. The point is the Ukraine is framed by Putin, and Cuba has a black friend in the Whitehouse. The UK is keeping quiet, and the balance is in favour of the USA.
The next step is relations with Iran, which should improve. The approach is significant, America has adjusted to the framing of countries by internal division. Russia is an enemy again and America is calling the shots. Cuba a porn in a game of draughts. Russia is the opposition and Iran the key player. The strategy is peace relationships and the threat may be the U.K.' s acceptance.
American foreign policy is bipartisan, it relies on a friendly Congress. The nearness of the U.S. election suggests the timing, but Cuba is typical in the knife edge challenge. Iran is more unpredictable, nuclear conflict is dominating the agenda, not trade links. The point is Cuba is a good investment, and Iran a threat. Russia a neutral power in the exchange.
The decline of the U.S. is through the international timing of the calendar, Cuba is late in Third World terms, Iran late in western, and Russia is a bipartisan issue in the US. The future lies in external friends. The relationships will exclude Europe when possible, because Europe is the pivot. The influence is American.
Saturday, April 11, 2015
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