British membership and Boris

The EU has attributes in foreign policy and political independence, the move against membership is driven by Conservative party division and social movements. The political separation will give economic independence and political inferiority to Westminster, but the out camp views global markets and increased growth as the likely outcome. Boris Johnson has career advantages in a political test of decision-making.

The Prime Minister negotiated a deal to resue the UK from this separation, sovereignty and political gain lay at the core of it. Other parts are inherited from previous encounters with the same question. Boris therefore can make new ground and Cameron has a large field of untested ground to play with. Boris' first strategy was to distance himself from the Prime Minister and he established himself as head of the out camp in the morning papers.

British membership of the EU has a different approach to the one faced now, coming out is easier than going in and could be quite uncomfortable for the PM. The reason is leaving is not new to British politics and other countries are easier to win over. Boris has to play the outraged Minister, something he does well and has been done in a similar context by Michael Heseltine. Mayor Boris has much to gain in funding and personal image, which might lead to a Prime Ministerial position.

Boris' second plan may be to undermine Labour on Europe. Since the 1970s Labour has been divided on the question, and held a referendum on  membership. The parties had internal factions, a state that exists when no discipline can undermine the authority of the different groups. Thirdly Boris may tackle the business community, as mayor he is in a good position because he attracts inward investment into London.

The question of globalisation and growth comes into it, and the defence was strong over the Single Market and EMU. It is on this issue that he is likely to fail, and older voters may come into the referendum's voting arithmetic. The EU is ideologically immune to these tests, one reason why the referendum was called. Boris Johnson may have lost key supporters over his move, but the referendum is unlikely to show it. A greater test lies uncertain and I argue may well confound his electoral ambitions.