UK's relationship

Chinese politics is based on risk, the visit by its President to the UK was a political signal to its elite that the centralisation of policy would continue. The Commonwealth is based on trade, but its centralisation is a political not policy signal. The visit reassured Huang that the UK had no interests in its region, the UK was more concerned with presitige and trade, an agreement was in Chinese interests. Centralised policty means closed borders and territorial integrity. The UK has interests in nuclear fuel because of low prices and the hope of access to markets in the far east.

The India dimension is fairly straightforward, India is a regional power and the UK has historical prestige in a close relationship with it. China is a friend which has no social comparison to the UK and the UK likes to invest resources on its territory, because of cheap labour and low regulation. The power relationship is less easy. The power in India is in structures, not institutions, the UK would like to exploit these links. China is in a similar position to the UK, and India has an historical power division in this area. The ideology is in structures and will the UK harm either country's interests.

Foreign policy is a structure and power an institutional division. I suggest China fears the UK history in the region, but has not assessed UK political culture and India is mindful of domestic interests looking towards new ties and not old benefactors. In other words the UK will not be a policy interest. China has centralised institutions, and structure is a regional battleground. The Chinese will wonder why the UK chose this moment, I suggest China has been reluctant. The visits to London by India and Chinese leaders are evidence of a reconciliatry move.

The UK policy is in trade through Europe and Japan, sometimes difficult for UK audiences. India and China may have political points, but trade depends on sea routes and trade deals not political demands. China understands this and is ready for a UK deal, will our suppliers trust it. India is less ready to concede its economic reach, possibly because of experience in dealing with the UK. Centralisation and regional power are important in these dynamics. The risk is China doesn't need the UK, and UK needs China.