The Republican election question

The independence process is a short one, and American elections are hazardous and dangerous affairs. Donald Trump is a seasoned campaigner and difficult to overcome, but traditional Democratic votes are more difficult to predict. The Trump phenomenon is a hot readers list favourite and Hilary is  a experienced and well advised candidate. But Trump is the likely winner except for the Presidential bear traps.

Hilary started with nothing to stop her, but her independence and intelligence is working against her. America takes it better from a man and Trump's attack on the Pope stole the limelight. The French Presidency is predictable, and caucuses remove this obstacle. Both are directly elected, but France is superior because its centralisation and bicameral nature allows the Prime Minister to have  a veto position.

Hilary seems to have played out this role in the hustings, but her choice of opponent is likley to trump her. Again like with Obama, the framework is not ticking in her favour. I suggest the British example is predicting a conservative victory and the threat comes from the establishment. The Democrats need to win in foreign constituencies, like Hispanics and cities. But Trump has the headlines there.

Foreign capitals are also important and can assuage the vote. The UK and France are indicating that a Republican victory would help. Arabia is supportive. Opposing powers influnce the black vote, which is unlikly to support conservatives. I believe an interest is important and a risk, and Hilary has this vote, traditionally a Republican one.

The votes in the South are therefore pointing to the periphery and the north is heading right. The reason is not only socio-economic. The periphery are well after Obama and the north is more liberal. It would not be difficult for Hilary to change the dynamics of a left-right shift. The other point is this would bring in foreign capitals and traditional voters. Hilary Clinton can still win.

Trump is leading bacause he has shown leadership and a black sense of identity. He could swap liberal voters for Rupublican frameworks and gain the foreign vote from a reflex action against Obama. The shift is left-right and principle economic, but socially the gain is right-special constituency. The question is was the Pope showing a leadership judgement which will be taken seriously. I doubt it because of religion.